Nature & voyage

Un autre mystère du réchauffement climatique

par Guillaume Duhamel, Jeudi 18 octobre 2012
Présenté par Allianz
Le réchauffement climatique pose la question de la survie à terme des pays insulaires.
D'une façon générale, le niveau des océans continue de baisser, même si le phénomène inverse a été observé entre début 2010 et mi-2011. Le réchauffement climatique n'en reste pas moins une triste réalité...

D’après une étude parue dans la revue Geophysical Research Letters, l’augmentation récente des précipitations aurait entraîné… une diminution du niveau des océans.

Ce ne serait pas le moindre des paradoxes du réchauffement climatique, déjà à l’origine d’hivers de plus en plus rigoureux dans les pays au climat tempéré et que la communauté scientifique a décidément bien du mal à appréhender. Les climatosceptiques ne devraient pas manquer d’exploiter ces travaux, même s’ils ne contestent pas la hausse du thermomètre mondial, sachant que l’idée communément admise jusqu’alors était que le niveau des océans n’avait de cesse de monter, notamment à cause de la fonte de la banquise arctique, menaçant la survie même des États insulaires.

Le niveau moyen des mers aurait en réalité baissé de 0,2 pouce (environ 5 millimètres) entre début 2010 et mi-2011. Une diminution qui s’expliquerait par la hausse des précipitations enregistrée en Australie, dans le nord de l’Amérique du Sud et en Asie du Sud. Rappelons qu’à l’époque, une multiplication des catastrophes naturelles avait été observée dans ces régions et imputée au phénomène La Nina, lequel a pour origine une anomalie thermique des eaux équatoriales de surface de l’océan Pacifique centre qui se caractérise par une température anormalement basse de ces eaux.

Un phénomène temporaire

« Il est important de reconnaître que ce phénomène n’est que temporaire », a tempéré John Church, spécialiste australien du réchauffement climatique, qui n’a toutefois pas pris par à l’étude précitée. « Le niveau de la mer est maintenant de retour à la ligne de tendance et le volume des océans augmente désormais à un taux d’environ 3,1 millimètres par an », a-t-il précisé.

Chercheur à la NASA et auteure de l’étude, qui a consisté en une analyse minutieuse d’une multitude de données satellites et in situ, Carmen Boening a de son côté rappelé que les satellites GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment), lancés en mars 2002 et qui ont été d’une aide très précieuse, peuvent mesurer des masses d’eau sur Terre. Ils permettent également, entre autres, de mieux comprendre la diminution des inlandsis polaires.

Il convient cependant d’insister : cette étude ne remet absolument pas en cause le changement climatique. Aussi la communauté internationale doit-elle continuer de s’employer à réduire au maximum les émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Elle aurait également tout intérêt à faire sienne l’estimation de la New Economics Foundation (NEF), selon laquelle il ne reste plus que cinquante mois avant le point de non-retour climatique…

Crédits photos : flickr / Craig O'Neal – Andrea Della Adriano
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  • Anonyme

    “Cette étude ne remet absolument pas en cause le changement climatique”
    Ce qui la remet en cause, c’est le fait que Tglobale est stable depuis 16 ans. Voici les droites de tendance Hadcrut et RSS, plates depuis 1997:
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997/offset:-0.15/trend/plot/rss/from:1997/trend
    Même le Met Office en convient:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
    Idem pour la climatologue américaine Judith Curry, contributrice du GIEC:
    http://judithcurry.com/2012/10/14/pause-discussion-thread/

  • lb

    Si la moyenne des températures est stable, il y a des pics inexplicables.
    Amusante et paradoxale photo du Mail qui montre une banquise en train de fondre pour illustrer le fait que le températures ont cessé de monter…

  • lb

    Si déjà vous argumentez et donnez une source, prenez au moins la peine de lire en entier :

    Like Prof Curry, Prof Jones also admitted that the climate models were imperfect: ‘We don’t fully understand how to input things like changes in the oceans, and because we don’t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is now working to suppress the warming. We don’t know what natural variability is doing.’Yet he insisted that 15 or 16 years is not a significant period: pauses of such length had always been expected, he said

  • Anonyme

    J’ai lu en entier, merci, de même que le post de Judith Curry, plus ouverte aux remises en cause. On peut en tirer 2 conclusions, mutuellement exclusives:
    - soit le rôle moteur du CO2 sur T est réel, mais il y a des processus naturels que le GIEC ne connaît pas et qui ont une action prépondérante sur T. En ce cas les modèles sont faux, et donc leurs projections n’ont aucune crédibilité
    - soit le CO2 a un effet non mesurable sur T, donc les modèles sont faux et leurs projections n’ont aucune crédibilité.
    Dans les deux cas, nous ne pouvons accorder aucun crédit aux projections des modèles numériques.

  • libertynic

    si la banquise a fondue, c’est qu’elle a subi une tempête gigantesque, que la glace s’est disloquée sous l’effet conjugué du vent et de la pression atmosphérique extrêmement basse et enfin cette glace disloquée poussée vers les mers chaude a fondue. voire analyses de la NASA.

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