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Nucléaire : les centrales allemandes seront toutes démantelées en 2022

par Guillaume Duhamel, Lundi 30 mai 2011

Les centrales nucléaires allemandes seront toutes démantelées en 2022

Les manifestations anti-nucléaires se sont multipliées en Allemagne depuis l'accident de Fukushima 1 (Japon), qui a bien sûr joué un rôle prépondérant dans la décision d'Angela Merkel de sortir définitivement son pays de l'énergie atomique d'ici 2022

Ce n’était donc pas un effet d’annonce. En se prononçant début avril pour une sortie progressive de l’énergie nucléaire à partir de 2020, Angela Merkel a provoqué une onde de choc mais elle ne bluffait pas…

Oubliée la prolongation de la durée de vie des centrales décidée pas plus tard qu’à l’automne dernier, conformément à ce qu’elle avait promis lors de la campagne des élections législatives de 2009 mais à une époque où, déjà, une proportion substantielle de l’opinion voyait vert et rouge : la catastrophe de Fukushima 1 (Japon), véritable Tchernobyl du XXI^e siècle, la multiplication de manifestations d’envergure (NDLR : la dernière en date, samedi, a rassemblé quelque cent soixante-mille personnes dans vingt villes du pays) et l’essor politique des Grünen, qui se sont emparés du land du Bade-Wurtemberg en mars, ont amené la chancelière à prendre une décision aussi spectaculaire qu’historique, nos voisins d’outre-Rhin étant les premiers à procéder à une telle refonte de leur politique énergétique. De son côté, le lobby de l’atome avait des arguments techniques et sonnants et trébuchants à faire valoir mais n’a jamais eu la possibilité d’espérer un fléchissement étatique. Le géant allemand Siemens a bien compris que Berlin ne reculerait pas, lui qui devrait officialiser prochainement un recentrage sur les technologies renouvelables. Le calendrier désormais connu, d’autres fleurons nationaux de l’énergie pourraient lui emboîter le pas dans les semaines à venir.

« C’est définitif »

Au terme d’une longue réunion débutée hier soir et qui s’est achevée dans les premières heures de la journée entre la CDU (Union chrétienne démocrate) de M^me Merkel, son alliée bavaroise de la CSU, les libéraux de la FDP (Parti libéral-démocrate) mais aussi des membres de l’opposition, la coalition gouvernementale s’est entendue sur la fermeture de six réacteurs à l’horizon 2021. Les trois derniers cesseront leurs activités l’année suivante, de sorte à prévenir toute pénurie d’électricité, sachant que sept des huit turbines mises en service avant 1980 ont été provisoirement arrêtées à la suite des événements au Japon (NDLR : la huitième était stoppée depuis plus longtemps).

« C’est définitif [...] Il n’y aura pas de clause de réexamen » contrairement à ce que souhaitait la FDP, opposée à des dates fixes, a fait savoir le ministre de l’Environnement Norbert Röttgen.

Comme en Suisse, le Parlement doit cependant encore valider la décision gouvernementale, qui à n’en pas douter déclenchera les foudres des compagnies électriques RWE, E.ON, EnBW et Vattenfall, lesquelles se partagent l’exploitation des dix-sept réacteurs du pays et pourraient envisager des poursuites (RWE a d’ailleurs déjà porté plainte contre la fermeture forcée de l’un de « ses » réacteurs). À moins que les autorités allemandes ne renoncent à la taxe sur le combustible nucléaire, créée en contrepartie de l’allongement de la durée de vie des centrales, qui devait rapporter deux milliards trois cents millions d’euros dès cette année mais qui n’a pas encore été prélevée.

Conséquences directes de la volte-face des décideurs : les importations d’électricité, déjà en hausse depuis la déconnexion du réseau des sept plus vieilles turbines allemandes, devraient considérablement augmenter et une nouvelle impulsion sera donnée aux énergies vertes. Il ne faudrait cependant pas s’attendre à une prolifération d’éoliennes terrestres, d’abord parce que les finances de l’État ne le permettent pas, ensuite parce que le potentiel allemand en la matière est déjà largement exploité. Et si les projets photovoltaïques et éoliens offshore sont promis à se multiplier, le mystère subsiste sur les centrales au charbon. De nouvelles installations de ce type seront-elles construites pour compenser le déficit énergétique, étant entendu que 22 % de l’électricité allemande provient actuellement de l’atome ? Les Grünen ont beau avoir le vent en poupe et la conjoncture énergétique avec eux, on voit mal comment Berlin pourrait se passer de la contribution du charbon.

Quant à l’abandon du nucléaire, il se veut « totalement politique ». « Il n’y a pas eu de référendum ni d’appel à ce que pensait l’opinion publique, même si les sondages montrent l’émotion des Allemands », a ainsi déploré la présidente d’Areva Anne Lauvergeon, qui a toutefois indiqué tout à l’heure au micro de BFM Radio qu’elle s’attendait à « une réaction allemande spécifique ». Et d’évoquer une incertitude juridique, brèche dans laquelle Vattenfall et consorts peuvent encore s’engouffrer d’ici 2022.

« Il peut se passer beaucoup de choses » a résumé M^me Lauvergeon, à qui il n’a pas échappé que la fermeture des sept plus vieux réacteurs a immédiatement « entraîné un renchérissement significatif des coûts de l’électricité en Allemagne, avec des conséquences pour la base industrielle installée ». Le revers de la médaille…

Crédits photos : flickr – Steffen Zahn / World Economic Forum

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217 commentaires

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Tags: Allemagne, Areva, énergies renouvelables, Fukushima, nucléaire, RWE, Vattenfall

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