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Montée des eaux : WWF redoute des conséquences financières catastrophiques

Montée des eaux : WWF redoute des conséquences financières catastrophiques
New York fait partie des mégapoles directement menacées par la hausse du niveau des mers

C’est un chiffre vertigineux, apocalyptique, à la mesure du désastre que redoutent la plupart des associations écologistes.

En octobre dernier, les autorités maldiviennes ont voulu attirer l’attention de la communauté internationale en organisant le premier conseil des ministres sous-marin de l’histoire. Quelques semaines plus tard, Marie-Morgane Le Moël, correspondante du Monde en Australie, faisait état d’une inquiétude grandissante des autorités, de la communauté scientifique et des populations.

Ces deux îles sont directement menacées par la montée des océans née du changement climatique et de sa conséquence aujourd’hui la plus manifeste, la fonte des glaces. Elles ne sont hélas pas les seules. D’après un rapport de WWF publié fin novembre, quelque cent trente six villes portuaires seraient en effet directement menacées si la température augmente entre un demi et deux degrés celsius d’ici à 2050. Dans la mesure où 2009 a été l’année la plus chaude de la dernière décennie et où, en l’état actuel des choses, rien ne garantit que les émissions de gaz à effet de serre d’origine anthropique (GES) jugées responsables des récentes évolutions climatiques seront effectivement réduites de manière significative, il est à craindre que le thermomètre planétaire avalise l’implicite prédiction de l’ONG. Auquel cas, il serait selon elle « possible que le niveau des mers progresse d’un demi-mètre » et entraîne « d’importants dégâts financiers ».

« Importants ». Le mot est faible, car au total, la montée des océans pourrait coûter aux autorités la bagatelle de vingt huit mille milliards de dollars (!) dans quarante ans. Et le rapport de préciser que si par malheur un ouragan de catégorie 4 devait frapper New York d’ici à la moitié du XXIe siècle, il provoquerait cinq mille milliards de dollars, soit cinq fois plus qu’aujourd’hui.

La Grosse Pomme, d’autres mégapoles de la côte est américaine et des villes de la taille de Sydney ont donc toutes les raisons de trembler devant la perspective d’une hausse dramatique du niveau des océans, d’autant qu’en l’occurrence des mesures municipales ne sauraient suffire à atténuer ses effets.

Les investissements massifs consentis actuellement par une partie des décideurs pourraient permettre, à terme, de faire des économies conséquentes. Elles le seront encore plus lorsque la communauté internationale se sera entendue sur une stratégie digne de ce nom pour contenir le réchauffement climatique.


Crédit photo : Flickr – paalia
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  • jipebe29

    Il serait bon de prendre en compte les données d’observation:
    - stabilisation de la température moyenne globale depuis 1999 – mesures satellitaires UAH et RSS – voir sur le site
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/offset:-0.15/plot/gistemp/from:1998/offset:-0.24/plot/uah/from:1998/plot/rss/from:1998
    - léger refroidissement des océans depuis 2003 (mesures in situ des 3350 sondes océaniques ARGO, de la surface à 700 m de profondeur)
    - tendance à la stabilisation de la montée des océans (environ 1 mm/an)
    - absence de points chauds en zone tropicale (ces points chauds étant des signatures des effets prévus par les modèles du GIEC) Donc, ce que l’on nous raconte sur les cataclysmes climatiques futurs, et notamment sur la montée des niveaux océaniques, est très peu crédible.

  • daniel d

    @jipebe29 : Et pourtant il me semble que la banquise continue de fondre…

  • jipebe29

    @daniel d
    La fonte de la banquise au cours du jour boréal est due pour l’essentiel à des vents chauds persistants en provenance du sud. Une campagne de mesures de l’Institut allemand Wegener, en mars-avril 2009 a révélé un renforcement de la glace du pôle nord : de 2,5m à 4 m. Pour l’Antarctique, l’extrémité de la péninsule ouest perd de la glace, mais l’Antarctique en a gagné 1,7 millions de km2. La fonte localisée de la péninsule est due aux activités volcaniques sous-marines.
    Le concept de climat global est un mythe : le climat est avant tout sectoriel.

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