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Météo-France craint un été particulièrement chaud et aride

C’est désormais devenu une triste habitude, avec laquelle il faudra chaque année composer : la France n’est pas encore entrée de plein pied dans la saison estivale mais la situation pluviométrique est déjà fragile. Les chaleurs record qui se sont abattues sur le territoire français à la fin du mois de mai ont accentué l’importante sécheresse des sols tricolores, rendant la tâche des agriculteurs encore et toujours plus compliquée. Météo-France craint un été “plus chaud que la normale”.

“Le signal chaud est prédominant pour cet été sur l’ouest et le nord de l’Europe ainsi qu’autour du bassin méditerranéen”, explique Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, de la direction de la Climatologie de Météo-France. Ce phénomène préfigure probablement des températures plus élevées que la normale par rapport à la période de référence 1981-2010.

Si les données océaniques et atmosphériques mondiales permettent d’anticiper un été particulièrement chaud, les prévisions ne donnent malheureusement aucune indication quant aux épisodes de canicule et aux chutes de pluie auxquels la France peut s’attendre. Les précipitations estivales sont notamment difficiles à anticiper sur le moyen terme.

“Les précipitations des prochaines semaines seront déterminantes pour les Hauts-de-France et le Grand-Est, afin d’éviter une aggravation de la sécheresse sur ces régions”, estime Météo-France.

Il faut en effet savoir que la France connait depuis 6 mois un déficit pluviométrique de près de 30%. Si les pluies de début mai ont apporté un sursis pour les sous-sols tricolores, la fin du mois a vu le thermomètre grimper jusqu’à des températures trop importantes : ce printemps 2017 devrait d’ailleurs entrer dans le top 5 des printemps les plus chauds enregistrés depuis le début des relevés météorologiques (1900).

C’est sur l’état des nappes phréatiques que se cristallisent les inquiétudes des spécialistes : 67% des nappes d’eau souterraines françaises affichent actuellement un niveau “très bas”. Une situation qui provient d’une période hivernale irrégulière en termes de précipitations : “seul un tiers du territoire a bénéficié d’une bonne recharge hivernale (est et sud du bassin parisien, amont du bassin Adour-Garonne, régions de Nîmes et Montpellier)”.

“En ce moment, ce serait intéressant de pouvoir irriguer pour compenser la rigueur du climat. Mais tout le monde ne le fait pas : comme on a des réserves d’eau plutôt basses, les gens se réservent plutôt pour les cultures d’été [comme le maïs, la betterave ou le tournesol, ndlr]“, explique Jean-Paul Bordes, directeur recherche et développement d’Arvalis.

Il est cependant important de ne pas dramatiser la situation. La sécheresse actuelle est en effet moins sévère et plus localisée qu’au printemps 2011. Cette année-là, l’ensemble du pays avait subi la rudesse des températures. Météo-France précise également que la situation est loin de la catastrophique année 1976 où la pluie faisait déjà défaut en automne.

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