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Le niveau des océans continue inlassablement d’augmenter

Les études se suivent et les conclusions se ressemblent. Selon un récent rapport des Comptes rendus de l’Académie américaine des sciences, le niveau des océans est monté plus rapidement depuis le siècle dernier qu’au cours des 3 millénaires qui l’ont précédé. En d’autres termes, la hausse du niveau des océans n’a jamais été aussi rapide depuis 3.000 ans… et la propension des hommes à brûler les énergies fossiles dont recèle le sous-sol de notre planète n’y est pas pour rien.

Entre l’année 1900 et l’année 2000, le niveau des océans et des mers de notre planète s’est élevé de 14 centimètres en raison de la fonte des glaces notamment dans l’Arctique, région entourant le pôle Nord de la Terre. Les climatologues qui sont à l’origine de cette conclusion estiment que l’augmentation du niveau des océans aurait été moindre sans la hausse des températures observée au niveau mondial depuis le début de l’ère industrielle.

[Le 20ème siècle] a été extraordinaire comparé aux trois derniers millénaires et la montée des océans s’est même accélérée ces 20 dernières années”, explique Robert Kopp, professeur adjoint au département des sciences de la Terre de l’université Rutgers (New Jersey, États-Unis).

Entre les années 1000 et 1400, période caractérisée par un refroidissement planétaire de 0,2 degré Celsius, le niveau des océans a baissé de 8 centimètres. Une variation frappante, intrinsèquement liée à ce que le professeur Kopp estime être un “léger coup de froid du globe”.

Il apparaît aujourd’hui que la tendance s’est inversée depuis que la température mondiale moyenne est plus élevée d’un degré par rapport à la fin du 19ème siècle. Les chercheurs estiment en effet que le niveau des mers devrait “monter de 51 centimètres à 1,3 mètre durant ce siècle”, notamment si nos sociétés continuent à dépendre aussi grandement des énergies fossiles polluantes.

“Ces nouvelles données sur le niveau des océans confirment une fois de plus combien cette période moderne de réchauffement est inhabituelle car elle est due à nos gaz à effet de serre. Elles montrent que l’impact le plus dangereux de la montée des températures est l’élévation des océans, qui est bien engagée”, souligne Stefan Rahmstorf, professeur d’océanographie au Potsdam Institute de recherche sur l’impact du climat, en Allemagne.

Les scientifiques en charge de l’étude estiment cependant que si les engagements pris le 12 décembre dernier au cours de la COP21 venaient à être respectés, l’augmentation du niveau de la mer n’excéderait pas 24 à 60 centimètres. Il s’agit pour cela de réduire progressivement notre dépendance aux matières fossiles (charbon, pétrole…) afin de contenir le réchauffement climatique à 2 degrés par rapport à l’ère préindustrielle.

Les données misent en avant dans cette étude, et les prévisions qui en découlent, ont pu être compilée grâce à la mise au point d’une nouvelle approche statistique issue de l’université américaine d’Harvard. Pour évaluer le niveau des océans sur une aussi longue période, il a en outre été nécessaire d’analyser les relevés des marées effectués au cours de ces 300 dernières années à 66 endroits de la planète.

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