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Le monde à l’heure du climat

Le monde à l'heure du climat
Barack Obama n'escomptait pas faire le déplacement à Copenhague. La pression de la communauté internationale a fini par le faire changer d'avis

Le sommet de Copenhague s’ouvre aujourd’hui. L’événement écologique de cette fin d’année va rassembler plus de quinze mille participants venus de tous les pays. Le monde les regarde et retient son souffle.

Cette fois, ça y est. Enfin. L’heure n’est plus à ratiociner, à spéculer, à douter ou aux « si », elle est désormais à ces négociations qui, avant même leur ouverture, ont fait couler beaucoup d’encre. Question d’enjeux, d’attentes, d’incertitudes troublantes et de certitudes inquiétantes, avec en toile de fond la disparition des glaciers, la montée des eaux et les rapports pour le moins préoccupants d’experts dont on nous a assuré qu’ils étaient « délobbyisés ».

Ces dernières semaines, il y a aussi eu une polémique habilement orchestrée par des négateurs qui ont intercepté des courriels douteux et se sont employés à faire naître un doute sur l’intégrité des scientifiques du Groupe intergouvernemental d’experts sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC). Cette question ne devrait pas être tranchée de sitôt, et ce n’est pas demain non plus que disparaîtront les divergences d’opinion en matière de responsabilité de l’homme dans la hausse des températures, mais le fait est que les travaux de l’organisation ont été pris pour argent comptant par tous les dirigeants de la planète. Ceux-là vont débarquer dans la capitale danoise au compte-goutte et lestés d’une très forte pression.

La mine ne sera pas réjouie, elle ne sera pas grave non plus. Devant les caméras, il faudra bien sourire et dédramatiser. Certains sont dans le vif du sujet depuis de longues semaines et ont parcouru la planète pour tenter de convaincre les indécis de se rallier à leurs arguments. D’autres ont mis plus du temps à donner le sentiment d’être préoccupé par cette question du réchauffement climatique qu’autour d’eux, ils sont des centaines de millions à estimer essentielle.

Obama sous pression

Le pouvoir peut légitimement fasciner. En l’occurrence, il a quelque chose d’effrayant. Ceux qui l’exercent ont, tout compte fait, des responsabilités bien trop importantes pour être enviables. À Copenhague, les débats porteront pêle-mêle sur les moyens qu’il faut déployer pour ne pas franchir le seuil fatidique des 2 %, sur les générations futures, sur l’avenir d’un continent africain qui pollue peu mais paie le plus lourd tribut aux mutations climatiques. Autant de pommes de discorde potentielles dont nul en dehors des sphères concernées ne peut vraiment jauger l’importance.

Les décideurs vont devoir jongler entre la nécessaire préservation des intérêts nationaux et les non moins indispensables concessions pour aboutir à un accord mondial qui a vocation à largement dépasser les dispositions du protocole de Kyoto. À quelques heures de l’ouverture de la conférence, Ban Ki-Moon se disait « très optimiste ». Il l’était moins jusqu’ici mais le secrétaire général des Nations Unies, sous l’égide desquelles va se dérouler ce sommet dont on n’a eu de cesse de nous préciser l’importance, se doit de rassurer et d’appeler implicitement à l’entente, même si elle n’est toujours pas évidente.

Celle-ci ne pourra en tout cas être conclue sans le concours des Etats-Unis. Pour son président, qui a été élu d’abord parce qu’il prétendait incarner la rupture avec George W. Bush, c’est aussi une question de stature et de crédibilité. Barack Obama ne l’avait pas prévu, mais parce que l’étau s’est resserré autour de lui, il sera sur place. Sa présence ne saurait suffire à dénouer tous les liens – d’autant qu’elle n’a pas été accueillie par un concert de louanges dans la mesure où l’Oncle Sam se présente à Copenhague avec des objectifs chiffrés globalement jugés insatisfaisants - mais elle atteste peut-être, l’avenir proche nous le dira, d’une considération accrue pour la cause environnementale de l’autre côté de l’Atlantique. Compte-tenu du passif bushien et de la quantité de gaz à effet de serre (GES) d’origine humaine émise chaque jour, elle serait bienvenue.

Lauréat du dernier prix Nobel de la Paix, le locataire de la Maison Blanche a peut-être reçu un cadeau empoisonné. Cette distinction (trop ?) lourde de sens implique en effet des devoirs moraux dont, pour l’heure, on ne sait s’il sera capable de les satisfaire. Le Congrès continue de traîner les pieds et d’ergoter sur les pourcentages, or la situation ne pourra se décanter que s’il adopte le projet de loi proposé par le chef de l’exécutif américain, lequel souhaite entre autres en une diminution des GES de 20 % d’ici 2020 (NDLR : par rapport à 2005).

Par ailleurs, quand bien même l’Amérique d’aujourd’hui a marqué l’opinion publique internationale en portant un noir à sa tête, elle reste globalement conservatrice et autocentrée. En apparence au moins, elle semble peu consciente de la réalité des évolutions climatiques et de tout ce qu’elles supposent.

Barack Obama va devoir composer avec les réserves congressistes, le ménagement des partenaires et les exigences d’une partie de la communauté internationale, un numéro d’acrobatie qui relève de la gageure. Une fois n’est pas coutume, rien n’indique que les Etats-Unis puissent s’en tirer à bon compte en obtenant un « accord-compromis » qui pourrait certes limiter la casse à intérieur mais mécontenterait l’Union Européenne (UE).

Sur cette question du réchauffement climatique dont ils auraient voulu qu’elle ne devienne pas aussi capitale, ils ont bien entendu leur mot à dire, et peut-être même que quelques-uns de leurs arguments feront mouche auprès d’autres grandes puissances.  Reste qu’ils ne sont pas, bien loin s’en faut, les seuls maîtres à bord… et que la stratégie franco-brésilienne d’encerclement pourrait davantage encore limiter leur marge de manœuvre.

L’Union Européenne veut un texte fort

À la différence des Etats-Unis, l’UE n’a pas laissé longtemps planer le doute sur ses intentions : il a très tôt été question de réductions drastiques des émissions de GES et d’une aide budgétaire conséquente aux pays pauvres. Le chiffrement des objectifs a été beaucoup moins rapide. De même, on ignore encore quelles sommes seront allouées au continent noir et la consistance des circuits de financement. Mais eu égard aux déclarations d’intentions de ces derniers mois, on voit mal cette bannière étoilée-ci ne pas donner le la pour aboutir à un accord majeur.

Côté français, Jean-Louis Borloo n’a pas ménagé ses efforts. Il a bénéficié du soutien total de Nicolas Sarkozy, qui fonctionnera en doublette avec le président brésilien José Inacio Lula et s’est beaucoup impliqué ces dernières semaines, à l’heure où la taxe carbone avait des airs de pilule difficile à avaler. Un investissement d’autant plus pertinent que l’immense majorité des compatriotes se sont dits disposés à vivre « plus vert ».

Le chef de l’Etat sera lui aussi à Copenhague, comme son homologue britannique Gordon Brown, dont la petite histoire retiendra qu’il a été le premier européen à répondre favorablement à l’invitation des Nations Unies.

Soutenu par son supérieur hiérarchique, le plan « justice-climat » du ministre français de l’Environnement pourrait séduire, à moins qu’il ne soit trop ambitieux pour certains pays comme l’Inde et la Chine, qui se sont rapprochés ces derniers jours et devraient faire cause commune au Danemark).

« Copenhague ne sera pas un match entre le président des Etats-Unis et le président français », a parié François Hollande dans les derniers hectomètres. Pas si sûr, tant leur influence sur les tractations est incontestable et tant ils paraissent incapables d’accorder leurs violons. Pour le premier, la Conférence doit être l’amorce d’un tournant. Parce qu’il n’avait pas d’autre choix, le second n’en a, lui, jamais fait une finalité. Le chef de l’exécutif américain s’est résolu à une rhétorique prudente, trop au goût du Vieux Continent, qui aura aussi bien du mal à persuader l’Inde de desserrer l’étreinte.

New Dehli a en effet réussi le tour de force de ne présenter d’objectifs chiffrés qu’il y a trois jours. Un long délai de réflexion qui s’explique par le fait que le pays estime indispensable une croissance soutenue de son PIB (et donc de ses émissions) pour réduire la pauvreté. Concrètement, le radicalisme indien s’expliquait par le souhait de voir les pays industrialisés prendre leurs responsabilités de pollueurs via une forte diminution des rejets de C02 avant d’engager toute discussion sur cet épineux sujet. Le Premier ministre Manmohan Singh et Pékin refusent toute contrainte chiffrée sur les émissions des pays en développement. Une position sur laquelle ni l’un ni l’autre ne devraient revenir et qui pourrait finir par conduire l’UE à assouplir la sienne.

Il est toutefois un principe sur lequel tous sont d’accord : soutenir l’Afrique dans son développement pour lui permettre de mieux supporter les conséquences du changement climatique. Des discussions délicates sur ce point aussi sont cependant à envisager, les principaux pollueurs de la planète n’ayant jusqu’ici pas été d’accord sur la hauteur de la contribution. C’est suffisamment rare pour être souligné, mais les délégations africaines débarquent à Copenhague en ayant initialement procédé à une union sacrée, et elles n’ont jamais dissimulé leur détermination à faire pression sur les autres acteurs pour qu’ils consentent à un gros effort financier.

Pour cette raison aussi, douze jours de pourparlers intenses et poussifs se profilent, avec sans doute des myriades de banderilles assassines, de volte-faces et de péroraisons enflammées. Il est à craindre que certaines nations regardent leurs interlocutrices à travers le prisme déformant de leur idéologie économique, nombre d’entre elles n’arrivant pas encore à concevoir qu’elle puisse ne pas en être en contradiction avec la prise en compte de nouveaux fondamentaux écologiques. Pour que la mise au vert des grands de ce monde soit une réalité à l’échelle planétaire, celles qui ont dépassé ce prétendu clivage vont devoir convaincre en ménageant la chèvre et le chou.

La mission est périlleuse. Elle est aussi un préalable indispensable à un éventuel endiguement du dérèglement climatique. Le respect des engagements, quels qu’ils puissent être, sera la prochaine étape. D’ici là, nous aurons sans doute déjà une petite idée de l’obédience de ceux qui nous gouvernent.

Crédit photo : The White House - Pete Souza
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