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L’augmentation de la température des océans revue à la hausse

Depuis plusieurs années, la communauté scientifique s’interroge sur la pertinence des prévisions climatiques et l’ampleur réelle du réchauffement climatique. En effet, depuis 2014, la hausse réelle de la température des océans ne se révélait jamais aussi forte que dans les estimations mises au point par les experts climatiques. Et pour cause : une étude vient de mettre à jour les imprécisions de la méthode précédemment utilisée pour estimer la hausse des températures des océans.

Une étude publiée mi-janvier par la revue Science vient de confirmer que les estimations des experts climatiques étaient justes. En revanche, les méthodes de mesures anciennement utilisées n’étant pas assez précises, les relevés de températures étaient plus bas que la réalité. Sur la période 1971-2010, la température des océans jusqu’à 2.000 mètres sous la surface a donc été revue à la hausse de façon importante.

En 2014, les chercheurs du Groupe intergouvernemental d’experts sur l’évolution du climat (Giec) évaluaient le “contenu thermique des océans” entre 0,20 et 0,32 watts par mètre carré pour la période 1971-2010. De nouvelles études permettent désormais de l’estimer entre 0,36 et 0,39, voire jusqu’à 0,55 et 0,68 pour la période la plus récente (à partir des années 90).

Le matériel utilisé par la communauté scientifique explique le manque de précisions de ces mesures. Les bathythermographes, une sorte de thermomètres en forme de torpilles, sont notamment évoqués pour leur fragilité et leur fiabilité douteuse.

“Si vous voulez comprendre où se passe le réchauffement climatique, regardez dans nos océans. Le réchauffement océanique est un indicateur très important du changement climatique, et nous avons les preuves que ce réchauffement va plus vite que ce que nous pensions”, explique Zeke Hausfather, chercheur à l’Université de Californie à Berkeley et auteur de ce rapport.

Les océans sont de véritables indicateurs du réchauffement climatique car ils absorbent littéralement l’excès de chaleur de l’atmosphère créé par les émissions de dioxyde de carbone. La hausse des températures de zones océaniques est donc un signal parfait pour évaluer la vitesse du changement climatique.

Désormais, ce sont les balises Argo qui assurent avec brio la mesure des températures des eaux des océans terrestres. Depuis le début des années 2000, la communauté internationale a déployé plus de 3.900 de ces balises flottantes aux quatre coins du globe. Les données de ces balises se révèlent particulièrement fiables et pertinentes pour les 2.000 premiers mètres de profondeur.

“Les nouvelles estimations semblent résoudre de nombreux problèmes qui affectaient les anciennes mesures, et désormais elles semblent s’accorder plutôt bien aux modèles climatiques”, conclut M. Hausfather.

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