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L’Atlantique-Nord pourrait connaitre plus d’ouragans que la moyenne en 2017

L’Agence américaine d’observation océanique et atmosphérique (NOAA) vient de tirer la sonnette d’alarme : en raison de l’absence du célèbre courant chaud équatorial El Nino, l’Atlantique-Nord pourrait connaitre une forte recrudescence d’ouragans cette année.

Les prévisions de la NOAA ne sont pas des plus rassurantes pour les habitants du continent nord-américain. La prochaine saison estivale, qui s’étend du 1er juin au 30 novembre, pourrait connaitre une augmentation conséquente du nombre d’ouragan : selon les chiffres officiels de l’agence américaine, il y aurait 45% de chance que la saison 2017 soit plus active que la normale en termes de tempêtes tropicales.

“Il y a un potentiel pour beaucoup d’activité orageuse en Atlantique cette année. Si l’on ne peut pas arrêter les ouragans, on peut tout de même se préparer en conséquence”, explique Ben Friedman, administrateur à la NOAA.

Les chercheurs américains estiment qu’il y a 70% de probabilité que de 11 à 17 tempêtes tropicales caractérisées par des vents d’au moins 63 km/h se produisent dans les prochains mois dans l’Atlantique-Nord. Entre 5 et 9 de ces tempêtes pourraient même devenir des ouragans avec des vents d’au moins 119 km/h. Pire, entre 2 et 4 de ces tempêtes pourraient même atteindre les catégories 3, 4 ou 5 de l’échelle Saffir-Simpson (qui en compte 5) avec des vents de 178 km/h ou plus.

La tempête tropicale Arlene, qui s’est abattue dans la partie Est de l’océan Atlantique en avril dernier, est comprise dans ces prévisions. “Arlene est le premier système cyclonique nommé dans le bassin de l’Atlantique en 2017. Il s’agit également du premier système cyclonique nommé si tôt dans le bassin depuis 2003″, estime l’Observatoire Français des Tornades et des Orages Violents.

Selon les données accumulées sur la période de référence 1981-2010, une saison normale compte en moyenne 12 tempêtes tropicales, dont 6 atteignent la force d’un ouragan. Parmi elles, trois seulement ont été de grande puissance (de catégorie 3 à catégorie 5 sur l’échelle Saffir-Simpson).

Les prévisions 2017 tablent “surtout sur le fait que nous prévoyons un courant El Nino faible ou inexistant, des températures proches ou au-dessus de la normale à la surface de l’océan Atlantique dans la région tropicale et dans la mer des Caraïbes, ainsi qu’un phénomène de cisaillement des vents moins important”, précise Gerry Bell, responsable du service de prévision des ouragans à la NOAA.

Avec 15 tempêtes tropicales, dont 7 ouragans parmi lesquels 4 de grandes puissance, la saison des ouragans 2016 a été la plus active depuis 2012.

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